ANALYSIS: Pass the Salmon for Thanksgiving 2020

Sweet potatoes are not the only orange thing on the Thanksgiving table this year.

Retail features or buying opportunities for salmon look abnormal this year, up 75 percent from the previous week and up 61 percent from the same time last year. In total there are over 3,700 features across the U.S. this year.

The Chilean fillet market has been steadily firming over the past three weeks. Market participants report COVID-19 precautions in Chile, a focus on frozen production, and...

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ANALYSIS: Availability of Wild-Caught U.S. Shrimp Critically Low

Shrimp landings in the Gulf of Mexico have fallen to the lowest recorded level; at the current pace, the expectation is for only 69 million pounds landed. That is a 14 percent decline year-over-year and 33 percent fewer than the prior 10-year average. In addition, in September, the USDA initiated a purchase of frozen wild shrimp products for the Federal Food and Nutrition Assistance Program totaling 4.3 million pounds. So, in essence, only 65 million pounds will likely...

ANALYSIS: Opposing Pressure within the Tilapia Market

The market for tilapia frozen fillets from China has, for the most part, faired extremely well despite new obstacles to overcome in the uncharted territory of navigating through a pandemic this year. Largely due to its value and availability, retail sales skyrocketed as demand has remained moderate to active. As 2020 comes to a close however, there are a few factors putting opposing pressure on the market, creating some uncertainty looking ahead into 2021.

Upwards pressure on the market points to the swift rise of ocean freight...

ANALYSIS: September Pangasius and Catfish Imports Surge over 2019

Both Pangasius and Chinese catfish imports saw a surge in September imports when compared to the same month a year ago. September volume for pangasius frozen fillets totaled 9.8 million pounds, 3.1 million pounds, or 46 percent above the September 2019 total of 6.7 million pounds. The previous 10-year average for September imports is 17.5 million pounds, however. In looking at year-to-date totals thus far, January through September imports report 82.7 million pounds, retreating 6.5 percent from the...

ANALYSIS: Tilapia Imports Reign Over 2019 Across All Categories

While many species are seeing lower imports in 2020 due to implications stemming from the novel coronavirus, tilapia is not one of them. Fresh fillets and whole fish and frozen fillets and whole fish are all reporting January through September year-to-date volumes higher than the same 2019 time period.

Fresh fillets, running flat to the previous month has brought in 37.6 million pounds with a value of $10.6 million. Colombia and Honduras are the largest suppliers of fresh fillets...

ANALYSIS: September Shrimp Imports Second Highest on Record

September shrimp imports were released today, and following a record monthly figure in August, came in just short of that. At 165.189 million pounds, it is the second-highest monthly figure on record. This represented a 17.5 percent increase from the 140.572 million pounds last year.

Urner Barry Consulting Economist Angel Rubio expected the large gain, forecasting a total of 160.777 million pounds...

ANALYSIS: Early Look at Stone Crab as Shortened Season Begins

This year’s commercial stone crab season opened on October 15 under new regulations put forth by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission (FWC). The new measures are an attempt to help curb reduced harvest rates, increase survival of undersized crabs, and protect egg-bearing females. This year, crabbers will have to abide by the following: a shortened season by two weeks ending on May 2, an increase in the minimum claw size by a one -eighth inch, mandated use of escape...

ANALYSIS: Downwards Pressure on the Mussel Market

The market for New Zealand and Chile origin mussels are seeing downwards pricing pressure. Discounts are emerging across all sizes of New Zealand Green Shell mussels where the supply of small-sized New Zealand mussels are the thinnest among all sizes.  Chilean mussel meat is also seeing some weakness as it is largely a foodservice item...

ANALYSIS: Pangasius Imports Flat, YTD totals Retreat

August import figures of 11.05 million pounds show pangasius frozen fillets came in flat to the previous month, trailing 1,270 lbs. from July. On a year-to-date basis, 2020 has totaled 72.9 million pounds from January through August, the lowest YTD total since 2010 brought in 71.5 million pounds for the same timeframe.

So far this year, each month has fallen well below the previous 3-year average for import volume, while wholesale prices gradually weakened the first half of the year...

ANALYSIS: August Shrimp Imports Set All-Time Record

August shrimp imports were released today to a record monthly figure of 181.289 million pounds, 17.2 percent higher than last year’s 154.698 million pounds, and 10.1 percent above the previous high seen in October 2018.

Urner Barry Consulting Economist Angel Rubio predicted the August total to come in at 186 million pounds.

All the top five trade partners contributed to the gains. Positive year-over-year imports were seen from India (+6.6%), Ecuador (+106.5%), Indonesia (+17.2%), Vietnam (+7.2%), and...

ANALYSIS: Demand Picks Up for Larger Grades of Blue Swimming Crab Meat

The blue swimming crab meat market has remained somewhat stagnant for most of 2020, and before that, most of 2019. Individual inventory positions on all of the grades of crab meat were generally high coming off of a large upswing during the first half of 2018. From the summer of 2018 through most of 2019, the jumbo lump market for blue crab meat, along with many of the other grades, adjusted lower throughout most of that time period...

ANALYSIS: Russian Snow Crab Pricing, Market Share Continues to Climb

Russian snow crab imports have been climbing during 2020. Due to overall popularity and demand for snow crab this year, Russian snow crab appears to be filling a much-needed hole in the marketplace.

Overall imports of snow crab, due to the heavy dominance from Canada, follows a cyclical pattern each year. As the start of the Canadian season is in the late spring, an enormous jump in imports is seen during the month of May. June and July are typically higher import months but...

ANALYSIS: Overall King Crab Imports Down 5.4%; 9-12 Russian Reds at 52-Week High

Through the first seven months of the year king crab imports from Russia, the primary supplier in this category, are down 6 percent year-to-date and overall king crab is down 5.4 percent YTD. However, when taking a look a the breakdown between red and blue king crab out of Russia, Russian red is actually up 19.6 percent YTD while Russian blue crab is down 62.1 percent. In 2019 the breakdown YTD was 8.4 million Russian red versus 4.4 Russian blue...

ANALYSIS: Chilean Truck Strike Continues into Day 5; Salmon Market Undertone Full Steady to Firm

As the Chilean national trucking strike continues into day 5, supplies in the spot market are expected to tighten up significantly. Market participants report that arrangements are being made to continue to get fish out of Chile, but that airspace is limited. Many of the suppliers truck processed salmon from Puerto Montt up to the capital city of Santiago where the fresh fish is then flown into the U.S. market. Some suppliers are trying to secure flights out of...

ANALYSIS: Farmed Salmon Market Continues to Show Weakness

The farmed salmon market continues to be impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, coupled with a historical summer seasonal slowdown. Most years during the month of August, Chilean farmed fresh fillets are fairly stable. Looking at the past five years, 60 percent of the time the market has maintained an extremely steady pattern. In 2015 the market did dip lower, while in 2016 the market firmed. 2020 appears to be more closely following the 2015 trend. 

Taking a look at the 5-year...

ANALYSIS: June Snow Crab Imports Significantly Higher Than Cyclical Behavior; Up 47% From June 2019

June 2020 imports, released on August 5, are above 2019 levels. According to the data, year-to-date levels are up 3.3 percent. On a month-to-month basis, imports in June were higher than imports in May 2020 by 24.2 percent. When comparing to June 2019 is where we see the most significant upward comparison of 47 percent higher than the same time last year. Overall snow crab imports are also 47 percent higher than the 3-year average...

ANALYSIS: Blue Swimming Crab Meat Market Remains Firm

The crab meat market continues to see firming prices on all grades, especially the larger ones. Upward pricing pressure remains due to ever increasing replacement costs.  

In Indonesia, the top supplier of blue swimming crab meat, holding over a 54 percent market share, market participants continue to report that competition for product remains high. Cost for raw material in this top producing country is reported to be rising. Inventories are thin as many importers let their supplies in the U.S. dwindle given the lack of demand at foodservice throughout the country...

ANALYSIS: Number of Salmon Promotions at Retail on Pace with 2019; Fresh Market Ends the Week Mixed 

As of this writing, the farmed salmon market out of Chile is seeing supplies adequate to even barely adequate. The market did see a $0.10 uptick on all sizes of fresh Atlantic Chilean salmon fillets at the back end of the week. Most market participants are reporting that current supplies were falling short of buyers’ needs.

Some reasoning behind the barely adequate supplies from some of the Chilean importers varies. A few market participants have mentioned that COVID cases are...

ANALYSIS: Russia Increases its Market Share for Snow Crab; YTD Imports Up 96.4 Percent 

The market share for Russian snow crab has increased from 18 percent in 2019 to a robust 28 percent in 2020. With the U.S.’s seemingly insatiable demand for snow crab even during a pandemic, increased imports of Russian snow crab have been well received.  

This additional product is combined with a crab season out of Canada in which the U.S market has seen the highest volume of imported snow crab year-to-date since 2017...

ANALYSIS: Lobster Imports Sharply Lower in Sept.; Dragged Down by Decline in Shipments from Canada

Imports of lobster products in the month of September totaled 7.56 million pounds compared to 9.25 in September 2019; this represents an 18.3 percent or 1.69 million-pound decline.

Product from Canada accounted for roughly 70 percent of all lobster entering the country in September. However, in the month, 28 percent less product entered the U.S. from Canada. Individually, shipments of all categories declined...

ANALYSIS: Farmed Salmon Retail Promotions Up; Average Price at Retail Down

The fresh farmed salmon market struggles have been well documented over the last several months. Volatility in the marketplace has been quite common during the past year, prior to the start of the pandemic. As we look back to around this time last year, social unrest in Chile lead to protesting and rioting, which greatly affected production and therefore supply in the U.S. marketplace. 

Prior to the protesting in Chile in October 2019, the 3-4 pounds Chilean fillet...

ANALYSIS:  Frozen Salmon Fillets at All-time Lows

The frozen salmon fillet and portion markets have adjusted sharply lower on price over the past few weeks. Imports are at an all time high through August 2020.  

The market share in the frozen salmon fillet market is dominated by Chile, holding a 63 percent share. Norway’s market share is at 27 percent. Year-to-date Norway is up almost 20 percent, while Chile is up 19.6 percent YTD. Overall, the frozen salmon fillet market is up 24.8 percent YTD.  

Imports have...

ANALYSIS: King Crab Demand Improving During Pandemic

Upward pricing pressure continues to mount as supplies in the market for king crab remain extremely tight and inventories very thin. Supplies around the world are very light and reported demand continues to be insatiable. 

Imports released for August 2020 show a year-to-date slight decrease overall for king crab and more specifically a 0.6 percent decrease out of Russia, the dominant supplier of king crab to the U.S. market. Looking further at the breakdown between red, blue, and golden king crab from Russia...

ANALYSIS: Brazil Lobster Tail Market Reset

Seafood is, and always has been, uniquely placed when compared to other protein categories. It’s hugely reliant on the foodservice sector, and in particular, the mid-to-upper scale establishment; so, it came as no surprise that it was the most susceptible to the COVID-19 pandemic of all the main protein categories.

As one can imagine, one of the steepest price actions was observed in the lobster category. For illustrative purposes, let us look at the price action in 8 oz. Brazil origin tails...

ANALYSIS: Scallop Market Rallies into Q4

Scallop pricing throughout 2020 has wavered away from the seasonal pricing trends we have seen in previous years. At the start of the season, wholesale prices were softening earlier, but then firmed up faster in the middle to end of summer, especially on larger sized scallops where supply has been the most constrained.

While larger sized scallops are seeing upwards pressure due to a drop in landings of those sizes, 10/20 counts have also rebounded fairly quickly because this is a versatile size that lends itself to not only foodservice and...

ANALYSIS: Hard Shell Lobster Inventory Low Throughout Industry

It is not unusual for hard shell lobster prices to firm moving into the fall months. However, this year, NE hard shell select market prices have increased 50% since early August. By all accounts, stored hard shell inventory throughout the industry is low. Uncertain market conditions related to COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions have compelled market participants to be cautious with their holdings. Typically, strong demand for the Chinese Fall Festival (Oct. 1) fuels buying interest in larger sized selects. Because pounded inventory...

ANALYSIS: EU Frozen Shrimp Imports Down Year-on-Year   

While European consumption of shrimp trended upward over the summer months, trade activity remains below pre-pandemic levels.  

Quantity 

During the 12 month period ending in June 2020, The European Union (EU) imported  43,903.47 tonnes of frozen shrimp (HS 030617) compared to 49,674.19 tonnes a year previous, or a decline in total quantity of 11.6% (year-on-year) YoY.

Value 

According to latest available trade data, The EU imported a total value of €345.65m of frozen shrimp (HS 030617) over...

ANALYSIS: July Shrimp Imports Higher By Double Digits

July shrimp imports were released Thursday and reversed the negative year-over-year trend seen the last two months. Data released showed July imports to be 12.9 percent higher than 2019 at 150.201 million (v 133.042) pounds. 

Urner Barry Consulting Economist Angel Rubio predicted the July total to come in at 148.795 million pounds.

Of our top five trade partners, outsized gains from Indonesia (+27.8%), Ecuador (+81.8%), Vietnam (+17.8%), and Thailand (+18.8%) outpaced smaller year-to-year declines from India (-4.7%) and...

ANALYSIS: Orange Roughy Demands Premium

The latest season for orange roughy from New Zealand began back in June. Since then, quotations collected on new product have been demanding a premium compared to previous seasons. Currently, 6-8 ounce-sized fillets are averaging $7.75/pound when a year ago prices were $0.55 lower.

Import volume for the first half of the year remains in good shape with the 2020 January through June year-to-date figure of 1.8 million pounds registering 21 percent above the previous 5-year average...

ANALYSIS: Imported Scallops Seeing Competition from Domestic Supply

The smaller sized, slow-growing scallops located within the Nantucket Lightship Deep-South Area have created more opportunities for domestic product here in the U.S. Tariff and COVID-19 related setbacks aside, importers usually look to China bay scallops for the petite product at a value, however, as fishermen clear out the harvest from this area, new marketing opportunities for this class of scallops is emerging, overlapping with China bay scallop applications.

In looking at the latest import data, while 2020 year-to-date...